First Novel, First Revision

After attending a holiday party last weekend and having a lively conversation with a local bookseller, I decided it was time to get back to my 2011 NaNoWriMo novel and start revisions. I am sailing into new waters here. I have never revised a novel before because I have never completed a novel before. I'm excited about the prospect and not feeling an ounce of trepidation.

I spent a few hours last Sunday afternoon taking the first draft and migrating it into my copy of Scrivener.  I can see the benefit of getting a holistic view of the work, having research and thoughts in one place, and being able to jump around easily to work on different sections. I got Scrivener after starting NaNoWriMo last year so I was too unfamiliar with it to use it during November. I am now more familiar with it and I think Scrivener will be a lot of assistance to me in the days to come. I especially like the idea of cutting things but not really getting rid of them in case I change my mind later. Woman's prerogative and all.

I haven't read the first draft since I wrote it a year ago. After finishing it, I told myself I wanted to let some time pass so I could come back to it with fresh eyes. I'm glad I did. As I started piecing the novel into sections for the Scrivener software, I found many delights and surprises in things I had done and forgotten.

I learned something about myself from it too. Despite the fact that I'm an optimist with a good outlook on life, the parts of the novel that have stuck in my mind for a year are pretty much the sections I thought so terrible in the writing of it that I've never let anyone read the first draft. Perhaps I'll explore that someday. For the record, those sections didn't get any better for sitting there a year. They are still awful and will be re-written. I'll also be making changes to some other parts that weren't bad but could be stronger. I've had some relevant live-changing experiences in the past year and my key learnings will probably find their way into my revisions too.

I still have to finish moving the novel into the various chunks I've divided up in Scrivener but that is helping me to see where the weak parts are. So far, revising is a lot of fun. I think I'll do it several times.  :wink:

The Publishing Industry: 2032

The publishing business in 2012 is in chaos. “Book sales are stagnating, profit margins are being squeezed by higher discounts and falling prices, and the distribution of book buyers is ever more polarised between record-shattering bestsellers and an ocean of titles with tiny readerships. The mid-list, where the unknown writer or new idea can spring to prominence, is progressively being hollowed out” (Robinson). As this gets sorted out in the next twenty years, authors will begin participating in efforts to market their books and huge publishing conglomerates will continue to consolidate and focus on huge bestsellers. As conglomerates dwindle, the small press will rise again, and multi-format books incorporating new and old elements will be purchased through a variety of distribution channels.

In the preface to the paperback edition of Book Business: Publishing Past, Present, and Future in 2002, Jason Epstein predicted a consortium that would “eventually render many traditional publishing functions obsolete, especially those relating to the production, storage, delivery, and marketing of physical books” (Epstein x). While not a consortium of the “big six” publishing companies, Amazon opened a publishing arm in 2009, fulfilling Epstein’s predictions around the five functions he mentioned in the preface to his book.

Like book publishers in the 19^th century, the financial situation of an early 21^st century publisher is precarious; publishers are again becoming reluctant to take risks on the works of unproven authors. The corporate publishing model of sustaining profits in a large organization by depending on blockbusters to carry the financial weight of the midlist is unsustainable; publishers continue to look for ways to remain profitable.

On the heels of an announcement that Simon & Schuster was folding three of their imprints into existing ones and would be producing less titles, Penguin Books confirmed on October 25 that “Pearson and Bertelsmann are discussing a possible merger of Penguin and Random House” (Milliot and Deahl), which would combine the two largest publishing houses in the United States. This trend will continue over the next twenty years.

Along with consolidation, publishers will quit offering advances to unproven authors and there will be fewer opportunities for authors to be published by what is left of the “big six.” Writers will self-publish electronically in ever-increasing numbers and be responsible for self-promotion as they are starting out. Authors will write across media and look to package their novels with film deals and gaming storylines to keep their work profitable. New authors and mid-list authors who are too risky for the corporate conglomerates will be assisted by small, independent presses publishing books they love. Authors and publishers alike will still wrestle with protecting intellectual property rights although Digital Rights Management (DRM) will have proven to be a failed method. Cloud storage will be a preferred way to provide digital media and readers will be willing to pay for this method as they begin to trust that their books will still be there when they want them in the future, regardless of a device’s platform.

Most technology improvements we have seen in the past 500 years of publishing have been related to the supply side, from the Gutenberg bible to paperbacks to eBooks. Electronic publishing now makes it possible for anyone to publish a book quickly and cheaply; the market is being flooded with books as authors attempt to gain a foothold in the market. Faced with an overwhelming selection, demand side improvements will become a necessity.  “When you stop to consider that at the present juncture, we are producing a half million new titles a year distributed amongst, say, thirty million readers, were confronted with sample sizes of overlapping readership for the vast majority of texts that are so miniscule, no mathematician could possibly build a model that could predict likes and dislikes” (Nash). In the next twenty years, we will see algorithms developed that accomplish this. Despite that, human elements will still be needed and this is where agents and publishers can find success.

Dennis Johnson, co-publisher at Mehlville house said “the publishing business has always claimed--accurately, I think, but blindly--that books sell based ultimately on word of mouth. But you couldn't really prove it… But now you can prove it. Now you can actually see the word of mouth on a book and follow it on Facebook and Twitter and lots and lots and lots of blogs and webzines” (“Our eBook Future”). Traditionally there have been agents, publishers, booksellers and media between writers and readers. Social media changes that equation permanently by enabling an author to directly communicate with readers.

Successful authors will use social media to develop relationships. Fans and potential readers can quickly spot someone who is inauthentic and disengaged and will drop writers who appear to be these things. Writers who develop relationships and are effective participants in the digital community will reap the rewards of those relationships. Agents and publishers who wish to remain relevant in twenty years will need to offer writers something they cannot get through self-publishing and self-promotion; they must provide expertise and exposure in social media beyond the ability of a single writer, packaged with marketing and sales. Traditional media and independent booksellers will need to be active participants in the digital literary community as well.

Madeline McIntosh, President of Sales, Operations, and Digital at Random House has said “we're clear that our core competency is content selection and development: our editors know how to pick great prospective books and work with the authors to make the finished books even better.” (“Our eBook Future”). Over the next twenty years, what is left of the “big six” will have consolidated their imprints and will limit themselves to publishing prospective bestsellers.

Because conglomerate publishers will release fewer titles in the future, there is an opportunity for small presses to nurture relationships with authors who show promise. Independent publishers who offer a relationship with authors and publish books because they are passionate about the content will provide a home for authors who have outgrown or are not good at self-promotion. These publishers will have an advantage over the conglomerates whose first priority is profit for their stakeholders.

As developing countries grow and education improves, there will be more books from Africans and Asians. Readers will have access to stories and viewpoints from around the world, in part because of improving translation software. Small independent publishers will have an opportunity to nurture writers world-wide by seeking them out, writers who will be “flying under the radar” to most conglomerates. Diversity and passion will ensure that the most interesting books in twenty years will be coming from small, independent publishers.

The most interesting books of the future may not be traditional print books. “Clearly one of the dangers in projecting the future of print and print publishing is considering only the media consumption habits of adults our own age. All studies indicate that the next generation is going to strongly favor electronic online media over print-based media” (McIlroy 25). Most of the books published in print today will be digital in twenty years. What constitutes a book will change as well. Within the last year, one publisher introduced Hybrid Books, print books that include links and scan codes that allow readers to gain access to additional curated material. In the future there will be eBooks that incorporate audio, video and illustrative components. An eBook might include part of a hand-written rough draft of the novel, video of the setting and location of a non-fiction book, or audio interviews with the author. Digital media will also link to other media in the cloud, utilizing Software as a Service and whatever new technology exists in twenty years.

While Amazon is taking a bite out of the profits of bricks and mortar stores, they cannot be blamed for the recent fall of huge booksellers. “For one thing, surveys are already showing that in indie stores located near where a Borders has closed, business has gone up significantly” (“Our eBook Future”). Independent booksellers currently struggle with staying financially solvent. Hosting live events is something that is more difficult for an online bookseller to do successfully. Independent booksellers who focus on providing an excellent customer experience, serve as a good filter for readers, and facilitate the relationship between not only themselves and readers but between writers, readers and other writers, will be a vital part of the publishing industry in twenty years. Their readers will be loyal, choosing to buy eBooks from their local independent bookstore rather than a faceless online conglomerate.

In twenty years the publishing industry will be organized around demand side improvements and while technology will assist, the publishing industry of the future will be based around building successful relationships between authors, editors, publishers, agents, booksellers, and media. The adaptable will survive in what will still be recognizable as the publishing industry.

Works Cited

Epstein, Jason. Book Business: Publishing Past, Present and Future. New York: WW Norton & Company Inc., 2002. Print.

McIlroy, Thad. "The Future of Publishing." PrintAction 34.3 (2004): 22-5. OxResearch; ProQuest Central. Web. 27 Oct. 2012.

Milliot, Jim and Deahl, Rachel. “Random House, Penguin May Merge.” Publisher’s Weekly. 25 Oct. 2012. Publisher’s Weekly. Web. 28 Oct. 2012.

Nash, Richard. "Publishing 2020." Publishing Research Quarterly 26.2 (2010): 114-8. OxResearch; ProQuest Central. Web. 22 Oct. 2012.

"Our Ebook Future." Library Journal 136.16 (2011): 24, n/a. OxResearch; ProQuest Central. Web. 22 Oct. 2012.

Robinson, Colin. “Ten Ways to Save the Publishing Industry.” The Guardian. 12 Oct. 2012. Guardian News and Media Limited. Web. 25 Oct. 2012.