The publishing business in 2012 is in
chaos. “Book sales are stagnating, profit margins are being squeezed by
higher discounts and falling prices, and the distribution of book buyers is
ever more polarised between record-shattering bestsellers and an ocean of
titles with tiny readerships. The mid-list, where the unknown writer or new
idea can spring to prominence, is progressively being hollowed out” (Robinson).
As this gets sorted out in the next twenty years, authors will begin
participating in efforts to market their books and huge publishing conglomerates
will continue to consolidate and focus on huge bestsellers. As conglomerates
dwindle, the small press will rise again, and multi-format books incorporating
new and old elements will be purchased through a variety of distribution
channels.
In the preface to the paperback edition of
Book Business: Publishing Past, Present,
and Future in 2002, Jason Epstein predicted a consortium that would
“eventually render many traditional publishing functions obsolete, especially
those relating to the production, storage, delivery, and marketing of physical
books” (Epstein x). While not a consortium of the “big six” publishing
companies, Amazon opened a publishing arm in 2009, fulfilling Epstein’s
predictions around the five functions he mentioned in the preface to his book.
Like book publishers in the 19th
century, the financial situation of an early 21st century publisher
is precarious; publishers are again becoming reluctant to take risks on the
works of unproven authors. The corporate publishing model of sustaining profits
in a large organization by depending on blockbusters to carry the financial
weight of the midlist is unsustainable; publishers continue to look for ways to
remain profitable.
On the heels of an announcement that
Simon & Schuster was folding three of their imprints into existing ones and
would be producing less titles, Penguin Books confirmed on October 25 that “Pearson
and Bertelsmann are discussing a possible merger of Penguin and Random House”
(Milliot and Deahl), which would combine the two largest publishing houses in
the United States. This trend will continue over the next twenty years.
Along with consolidation, publishers
will quit offering advances to unproven authors and there will be fewer
opportunities for authors to be published by what is left of the “big six.”
Writers will self-publish electronically in ever-increasing numbers and be
responsible for self-promotion as they are starting out. Authors will write
across media and look to package their novels with film deals and gaming
storylines to keep their work profitable. New authors and mid-list authors who
are too risky for the corporate conglomerates will be assisted by small,
independent presses publishing books they love. Authors and publishers alike
will still wrestle with protecting intellectual property rights although
Digital Rights Management (DRM) will have proven to be a failed method. Cloud
storage will be a preferred way to provide digital media and readers will be
willing to pay for this method as they begin to trust that their books will
still be there when they want them in the future, regardless of a device’s
platform.
Most technology improvements we have
seen in the past 500 years of publishing have been related to the supply side,
from the Gutenberg bible to paperbacks to eBooks. Electronic publishing now makes
it possible for anyone to publish a book quickly and cheaply; the market is
being flooded with books as authors attempt to gain a foothold in the market.
Faced with an overwhelming selection, demand side improvements will become a
necessity. “When you stop to consider that
at the present juncture, we are producing a half million new titles a year distributed
amongst, say, thirty million readers, were confronted with sample sizes of
overlapping readership for the vast majority of texts that are so miniscule, no
mathematician could possibly build a model that could predict likes and
dislikes” (Nash). In the next twenty years, we will see algorithms developed
that accomplish this. Despite that, human elements will still be needed and
this is where agents and publishers can find success.
Dennis Johnson, co-publisher at
Mehlville house said “the publishing business has always claimed--accurately, I
think, but blindly--that books sell based ultimately on word of mouth. But you
couldn't really prove it… But now you can prove it. Now you can actually see
the word of mouth on a book and follow it on Facebook and Twitter and lots and
lots and lots of blogs and webzines” (“Our eBook Future”). Traditionally there
have been agents, publishers, booksellers and media between writers and
readers. Social media changes that equation permanently by enabling an author
to directly communicate with readers.
Successful authors will use social media
to develop relationships. Fans and potential readers can quickly spot someone
who is inauthentic and disengaged and will drop writers who appear to be these
things. Writers who develop relationships and are effective participants in the
digital community will reap the rewards of those relationships. Agents and
publishers who wish to remain relevant in twenty years will need to offer
writers something they cannot get through self-publishing and self-promotion;
they must provide expertise and exposure in social media beyond the ability of
a single writer, packaged with marketing and sales. Traditional media and
independent booksellers will need to be active participants in the digital
literary community as well.
Madeline McIntosh, President of Sales,
Operations, and Digital at Random House has said “we're clear that our core
competency is content selection and development: our editors know how to pick
great prospective books and work with the authors to make the finished books
even better.” (“Our eBook Future”). Over the next twenty years, what is left of
the “big six” will have consolidated their imprints and will limit themselves to
publishing prospective bestsellers.
Because conglomerate publishers will release
fewer titles in the future, there is an opportunity for small presses to nurture
relationships with authors who show promise. Independent publishers who offer a
relationship with authors and publish books because they are passionate about
the content will provide a home for authors who have outgrown or are not good
at self-promotion. These publishers will have an advantage over the conglomerates
whose first priority is profit for their stakeholders.
As developing countries grow and
education improves, there will be more books from Africans and Asians. Readers
will have access to stories and viewpoints from around the world, in part
because of improving translation software. Small independent publishers will
have an opportunity to nurture writers world-wide by seeking them out, writers
who will be “flying under the radar” to most conglomerates. Diversity and
passion will ensure that the most interesting books in twenty years will be
coming from small, independent publishers.
The most interesting books of the future
may not be traditional print books. “Clearly one of the dangers in projecting
the future of print and print publishing is considering only the media
consumption habits of adults our own age. All studies indicate that the next
generation is going to strongly favor electronic online media over print-based
media” (McIlroy 25). Most of the books published in print today will be digital
in twenty years. What constitutes a book will change as well. Within the last
year, one publisher introduced Hybrid Books, print books that include links and
scan codes that allow readers to gain access to additional curated material. In
the future there will be eBooks that incorporate audio, video and illustrative
components. An eBook might include part of a hand-written rough draft of the
novel, video of the setting and location of a non-fiction book, or audio
interviews with the author. Digital media will also link to other media in the
cloud, utilizing Software as a Service and whatever new technology exists in
twenty years.
While Amazon is taking a bite out of the
profits of bricks and mortar stores, they cannot be blamed for the recent fall
of huge booksellers. “For one thing, surveys are already showing that in indie
stores located near where a Borders has closed, business has gone up significantly”
(“Our eBook Future”). Independent booksellers currently struggle with staying
financially solvent. Hosting live events is something that is more difficult
for an online bookseller to do successfully. Independent booksellers who focus
on providing an excellent customer experience, serve as a good filter for
readers, and facilitate the relationship between not only themselves and
readers but between writers, readers and other writers, will be a vital part of
the publishing industry in twenty years. Their readers will be loyal, choosing
to buy eBooks from their local independent bookstore rather than a faceless
online conglomerate.
In twenty years the publishing industry
will be organized around demand side improvements and while technology will
assist, the publishing industry of the future will be based around building
successful relationships between authors, editors, publishers, agents,
booksellers, and media. The adaptable will survive in what will still be
recognizable as the publishing industry.
Works Cited
Epstein,
Jason. Book Business: Publishing Past, Present and Future. New York: WW Norton
& Company Inc., 2002. Print.
McIlroy, Thad. "The Future of Publishing." PrintAction
34.3 (2004): 22-5. OxResearch;
ProQuest Central. Web. 27 Oct. 2012.
Milliot, Jim and Deahl, Rachel. “Random House, Penguin
May Merge.” Publisher’s Weekly. 25
Oct. 2012. Publisher’s Weekly. Web. 28 Oct. 2012.
Nash,
Richard. "Publishing 2020." Publishing
Research Quarterly 26.2 (2010): 114-8. OxResearch; ProQuest Central. Web.
22 Oct. 2012.
"Our Ebook Future." Library Journal
136.16 (2011): 24, n/a. OxResearch;
ProQuest Central. Web. 22 Oct. 2012.
Robinson, Colin. “Ten Ways to Save the Publishing
Industry.” The Guardian. 12 Oct.
2012. Guardian News and Media Limited. Web. 25 Oct. 2012.
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